517
FXUS64 KJAN 240729
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS ONGOING WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TODAY: RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE ME COASTLINE. FURTHER SOUTHWEST,
RIDGING EXIST OUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO FOUR CORNERS WHILE
THE GULF COAST REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY AIR REMAINS
LOCKED IN. EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING INTO THE 20S. EXPECT A REBOUND AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGE
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE 850MB RIDGING
OUT WEST WILL BUILD EAST, SHIFTING FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS ENHANCED
GRADIENT AND FLOW (5-6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 35-45KT MEAN FLOW
AT 850MB AND 925MB) FAVOR EFFICIENT MIXING AND BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST AND
ADJUSTMENTS WERE BLEND IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF NBM DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTANT CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE). OPEN BURNING REMAINS DISCOURAGED AS FIRES ARE
REMAIN LIKELY TO ESCAPE CONTROL. THERE WERE SEVERAL FIRES THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE OF CONCERN AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR WHERE GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON (AROUND 30F TO 35F), WITH 40F DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE
TYPICALLY A RARE OCCURRENCE AND ANY FURTHER MODERATION WILL
ENHANCE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY): DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AT THE START ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST, DRIVING A
FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER
TO JUST OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, BUT DEPENDING ON THE
STOUTNESS OF THE SHORTWAVE ASCENT, SOME HEAVIER TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 35 TO 50 PERCENT
EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR, SO HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS IN EASTERN AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEAN BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30-50KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM LAYERS AND SOME LAPSE
RATES MAY FAVOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS LOW BUT MARGINALLY STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
SLIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME GUSTY PREFRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AROUND MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY). TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 45 72 59 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 57 42 72 57 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 63 47 75 59 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 60 45 76 60 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 63 48 75 61 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 59 47 70 59 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 60 46 70 60 / 0 0 0 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC
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