393
FXUS64 KJAN 241743 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1143 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN BUT THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK IS
BEHIND US. SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL TOP OUT
AROUND TEN DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THEY DID MONDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1026MB HIGH CENTERED OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND A <1004MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP
RESULT IN A GUSTY SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CWA. THESE WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TODAY: RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE ME COASTLINE. FURTHER SOUTHWEST,
RIDGING EXIST OUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO FOUR CORNERS WHILE
THE GULF COAST REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY AIR REMAINS
LOCKED IN. EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING INTO THE 20S. EXPECT A REBOUND AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGE
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE 850MB RIDGING
OUT WEST WILL BUILD EAST, SHIFTING FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS ENHANCED
GRADIENT AND FLOW (5-6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 35-45KT MEAN FLOW
AT 850MB AND 925MB) FAVOR EFFICIENT MIXING AND BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST AND
ADJUSTMENTS WERE BLEND IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF NBM DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTANT CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE). OPEN BURNING REMAINS DISCOURAGED AS FIRES ARE
REMAIN LIKELY TO ESCAPE CONTROL. THERE WERE SEVERAL FIRES THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE OF CONCERN AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR WHERE GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON (AROUND 30F TO 35F), WITH 40F DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE
TYPICALLY A RARE OCCURRENCE AND ANY FURTHER MODERATION WILL
ENHANCE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY): DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AT THE START ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST, DRIVING A
FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER
TO JUST OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, BUT DEPENDING ON THE
STOUTNESS OF THE SHORTWAVE ASCENT, SOME HEAVIER TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 35 TO 50 PERCENT
EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR, SO HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS IN EASTERN AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEAN BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30-50KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM LAYERS AND SOME LAPSE
RATES MAY FAVOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS LOW BUT MARGINALLY STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
SLIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME GUSTY PREFRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AROUND MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY). TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WIND AROUND 20KTS WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PREVAIL IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING CNTRL AND EAST BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH 12Z BUT MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 12Z AND PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 45 73 59 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 58 42 72 57 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 62 48 74 60 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 62 45 75 60 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 64 49 75 61 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 58 48 70 59 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 59 48 70 60 / 0 0 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/22
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