245
FXUS64 KJAN 251557 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
THE EAST AND A 1002MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND THAT WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE BACK ACROSS OUR CWA AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TOWARD OUR CWA.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET BUT LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES BY EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK (FRIDAY): DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE
START TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO A DRY, WARM BUT CLOUDY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM, SOME 8-12F ABOVE (70-78F). STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WINDS
COULD BE A CONCERN AND BREEZY AT TIMES (LIKELY UP TO 30MPH AT
MOST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS).
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THEN CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVING A COLD FRONT
AND RAIN AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW (THURSDAY).
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO JUST OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH, BUT DEPENDING ON THE STOUTNESS OF THE
SHORTWAVE ASCENT, SOME HEAVIER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH REMAIN
POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 35 TO 50 PERCENT EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME CHANCES OF 55 TO 65
PERCENT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 2
INCHES REMAIN LOW. MEAN BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-50KTS IN THE 0-3KM
AND 0-6KM LAYERS AND SOME LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS OF 25C TO
28C MAY FAVOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW IN SEVERE CONVECTION BUT MARGINALLY STRONG TO A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A SLIGHT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY): QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP ANY PERTURBED FLOW AND BAROCLINIC FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE OFF TO THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
SOUTH BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM AND REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS MODERATING INTO NEXT
WEEK (MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LOW TO MID 50S INTO
NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP STRATUS TO THE WEST SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING AND LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR IN SOME AREAS.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AROUND 30KTS TO 35KTS AT TIMES BUT ONLY LASTING
THROUGH AROUND 25/14-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER, BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AROUND 26/08-10Z
THURSDAY AT MOST TAF SITES, EXCEPT MEI, PIB AND HBG. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 59 75 54 / 0 20 60 80
MERIDIAN 72 57 74 53 / 0 20 70 90
VICKSBURG 75 60 76 52 / 0 20 60 70
HATTIESBURG 76 59 78 59 / 0 10 50 80
NATCHEZ 75 61 78 55 / 0 10 40 70
GREENVILLE 71 60 73 48 / 0 20 60 40
GREENWOOD 72 61 74 50 / 0 40 70 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/
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