287
FXUS64 KJAN 260544 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTH BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
THE EAST AND A 1002MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
OUR CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD OUR CWA. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO OUR CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 82 BY NOON THURSDAY AND STILL BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNSET. THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT BUT OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW. /22/
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND A QUARTER TO JUST AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH. GIVEN THE MEAN BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-50KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-
6KM LAYERS AND SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS OF 25C TO
28C, A FEW STRONG ISOLATED STORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TRACK
SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE PINE BELT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OUR CWA AND TOWARDS THE PINE BELT. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS WITH QUIET CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /CR/
THIS WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP ANY PERTURBED FLOW AND BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE OFF TO THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE REGION INTO
THE MID SOUTH BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM AND REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS MODERATING
INTO NEXT WEEK (MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LOW TO MID
50S INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA WITH POPS BETWEEN 20-30%. /CR/DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CEILINGS FALLING BACK TO
MVFR/IFR CONCURRENT WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY.
GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 59 75 55 / 0 20 50 80
MERIDIAN 72 57 74 55 / 0 20 60 80
VICKSBURG 75 60 76 55 / 0 20 50 70
HATTIESBURG 76 59 78 60 / 0 10 40 80
NATCHEZ 75 61 77 57 / 0 10 20 70
GREENVILLE 71 60 73 51 / 0 20 40 30
GREENWOOD 72 61 74 52 / 0 40 50 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/LP
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