370
FXUS64 KJAN 261748
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1148 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY: OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET TROUGHING SINKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME. MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, POSSIBLY A LINE OF
STORMS, AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ANTICIPATED, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TIME
THAT INSTABILITY WANES IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS IS MUCH NEEDED IN MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MILDLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH OF
OUR REGION. IN FACT, IN MOST AREAS, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODIC
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MOST CEILINGS ARE IMPROVING TO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECT THIS TREND TO REVERSE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN STRATUS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT IN THE
MVFR RANGE AS SURFACE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 55 72 47 / 40 70 10 0
MERIDIAN 75 55 72 45 / 70 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 77 53 73 46 / 30 60 10 0
HATTIESBURG 77 59 77 50 / 40 80 30 0
NATCHEZ 77 58 76 49 / 30 60 10 0
GREENVILLE 73 49 70 45 / 30 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 50 72 45 / 50 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC
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