240
FXUS64 KJAN 261838
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1238 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MOST IMPACTS FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM AS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BRING A THREAT FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, RAINFALL
WILL BE MOSTLY HELPFUL GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN. FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH MILD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING AS THE POLAR STREAM IS CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF
OUR REGION. /EC/
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODIC
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MOST CEILINGS ARE IMPROVING TO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECT THIS TREND TO REVERSE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN STRATUS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT IN THE
MVFR RANGE AS SURFACE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 72 47 76 / 70 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 72 45 76 / 80 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 53 73 46 77 / 60 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 59 77 50 80 / 80 30 0 0
NATCHEZ 58 76 49 80 / 60 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 70 45 75 / 30 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 72 45 77 / 40 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC
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