366
FXUS64 KJAN 270344 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
944 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 82. THIS ACTIVITY WAS JUST SOUTH OF A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS THAT WILL
SWING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND HELP
PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA. THERE REMAINS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MORNING
AREAWIDE. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MOST IMPACTS FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM AS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BRING A THREAT FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, RAINFALL
WILL BE MOSTLY HELPFUL GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN. FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH MILD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING AS THE POLAR STREAM IS CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF
OUR REGION. /EC/
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODIC
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /DL/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES AT 2330Z. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WL ACCOMPANY THE TSRA BUT ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 73 47 76 / 80 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 73 46 74 / 90 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 55 75 48 78 / 60 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 77 52 78 / 80 40 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 76 50 78 / 50 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 50 72 46 76 / 40 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 52 73 46 77 / 60 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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