556
FXUS64 KJAN 010517 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1117 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
TODAY AND SUNDAY: A QUIET AND WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
850MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WITH DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER
TO JUST EAST OF THE AREA, DEEP MIXING WILL BE A CONCERN BOTH DAYS
BUT ESPECIALLY THE CASE TODAY. BASED ON THAT, LOWERED AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TOWARDS GRIDDED LAMP AND HRRR, WHICH SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING MIXING A TOUCH MORE. DIURNAL RANGE BOTH DAYS, BUT
ESPECIALLY TODAY, WILL PEAK NEAR 30F TO 35F DEGREES, WHICH
BECOMES QUITE RARE AS YOU APPROACH 40F DIURNAL RANGE. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW BUT WINDS REMAIN VERY
LIGHT AND LIMIT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT. HELD OFF
HIGHLIGHTING ON FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 15F ABOVE (78F TO 82F BOTH DAYS),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS BOTH TONIGHT, SOME 8F TO 12F ABOVE, AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME 10F TO 15F ABOVE (45F TO 52F TONIGHT
AND 50F TO 55F SUNDAY NIGHT). SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN SPOTS TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HREF DENSE FOG
PROBS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
NEXT WEEK: UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WHILE QUASI ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
HEAT AND SOME GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY INTO THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY,
AS THEY CREEP UP, HIGHS SOME 15F TO 20F ABOVE (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S EARLY WEEK WHILE LOW TO MID 80S BY LATE WEEK) WHILE LOWS SOME
20F TO 25F ABOVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (LOW TO MID 50S EARLY WEEK
BEFORE LOW TO MID 60S INTO LATE WEEK). RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD
OFF MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE (INCH TO
INCH AND A HALF) INTO LATE WEEK. SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
COULD DEFLECT OFF TO THE NORTH AND COVERAGE BE A BIT HIGH (35 TO
45 PERCENT). HOWEVER, THE PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INTO
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING COLD CORE
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO GULF TO CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER PATTERN INTO LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SOME
MACHINE LEARNING AND AI GUIDANCE SUITE. STAY TUNED AS THE PATTERN
COMES INTO AGREEMENT AND FINE DETAILS ARE IRONED OUT. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH MS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 47 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 50 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 76 53 77 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 51 78 55 79 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/DL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page