428
FXUS64 KJAN 011837
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1237 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SOME
STORMS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
- WET AND STORMY PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED SIGNALS OF
MORE IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY)...
THROUGH TONIGHT: A QUIET AND WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 850MB
SHORTWAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS COMING BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
DRY AIR PERSISTS ALOFT WITH ONLY AN UPTICK TO UP TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS), SO DEEP MIXING ISN'T
AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARDS SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS AND GRIDDED LAMP DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE AROUND
NEAR 28F TO 40F DEGREES, WITH HIGHER RANGES IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN
MS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
BUT LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY OVERACHIEVED
ON MIXING AND FIRE DANGER, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS, HUMIDITY
WON'T BE AS CRITICALLY LOW TODAY SO FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A CONCERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO
18F ABOVE (79F TO 83F), WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS BOTH TONIGHT,
SOME 8F TO 12F ABOVE, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE (50F TO 55F TONIGHT). SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE PINE BELT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HREF INDICATE LOW END
DENSE FOG PROBS (10 TO 30 PERCENT). HOLDING OFF INTRODUCTION IN
HWO FOR NOW BUT MONITORING TRENDS.
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY): UPPER PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WHILE QUASI ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT AND SOME GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY
INTO THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL
BE THE STORY, AS THEY CREEP UP, HIGHS SOME 12F TO 20F ABOVE (UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S EARLY WEEK WHILE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE WEEK) WHILE
LOWS SOME 15F TO 25F ABOVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (LOW TO MID 50S EARLY
WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID 60S INTO LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND).
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE (ONE INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF) INTO LATE WEEK
AROUND THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES COULD
DEFLECT OFF TO THE NORTH AND COVERAGE BE A BIT HIGH ON FRIDAY (35
TO 65 PERCENT). HOWEVER, THE PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INTO
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING CUTOFF COLD
CORE LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO GULF TO CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA, THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING INCREASED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE, DEEPER MOIST ADVECTION OF PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A
HALF AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL STORMY AND WET NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION, WITH GFS
CLUSTER ANALYSIS LEANING TOWARDS MORE CUTOFF LOW AND LESS PHASED
WITH JET ENERGY TO THE NORTH WHILE EURO AND CANADIAN CLUSTER
ANALYSIS INDICATE LESS CUTOFF AND MORE PHASED SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD BE A FASTER AND MORE IMPACTFUL SOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING, AI AND CIPS HISTORICAL ANALOG GUIDANCE SUITE
STILL SUPPORT A SETUP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS EARLY AS NEXT
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER SOUTHEAST RIDGE BRING PAUSE FOR
CONFIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, STORM MODE AND TIMING.
STAY TUNED AS THE PATTERN COMES INTO AGREEMENT AND FINE DETAILS
ARE IRONED OUT. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO HBG AND PIB FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILING STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 52 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 50 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 54 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS20
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