932
FXUS64 KJAN 151747 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.
- STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MID
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE
THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATES TODAY: MESSAGING FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT REMAINS ON
TRACK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTH FOR THE ENHANCED
RISK, WITH FOCUS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER WINDS. THE SIGNIFICANT
FREEZE THREAT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING AREA AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
STORMS AS THE FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, COLD
AIR IS OUTRUNNING THE PRECIP. THERE IS AN UPTREND IN CAM GUIDANCE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
AROUND DAWN MONDAY MORNING, NONE OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTFUL.
IN THE NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A STOUT
UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND ITS AFOREMENTIONED ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF HAZARDS.
CONCERNING THE WIND THREAT: STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A STRONG GRADIENT WIND THREAT BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN THE
WAKE OF STORMS TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
DELTA REGION, AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARION, LAMAR, AND FOREST COUNTIES, AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT: THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR, ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL
SUPPORT A FORCED SQUALL LINE RACING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO BE MESSAGED, WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE HIGHLIGHTING AREAS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT AREA LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE
GREATEST, AND WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEM
STRONG ENOUGH IN THE GUIDANCE FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SEGMENTS ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTOR, AND WITH DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE, WHICH SEEMS MOST PROBABLE IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN.
CONCERNING THE FREEZE THREAT: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A POLAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, AND WILL PROMOTE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT, WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAWIDE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE SIGNIFICANT TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
AREA, WHILE AN EXTREME IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE HARD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND IT COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR 6-10 HOURS. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT RECORD
WARMTH, AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS
FREEZE, IMPACTS TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION ARE EXPECTED. AND, WITH
MORE LOW TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
TUE MORNING, THERE WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EARLY SEASON
FRUIT CROPS. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED MESSAGING FOR TUE NIGHT WHEN THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN A MORE IDEAL POSITION, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LESS THEN WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF OUR
REGION.
IN ADDITION, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A
VERY SHORT WINDOW (1 TO 2 HOURS) FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THE
BACK END OF THE FRONT, INDICATIVE OF COLDER AIR OUTRUNNING PRECIP.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL AND WILL
BE BRIEF, BUT WILL BE A COOL PHENOMENON IN THE WAKE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN MID MARCH.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY SOUTH WIND 25-35KTS WL PREVAIL THROUGH
00Z MON. AFTER 00Z A BAND OF TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS WL BE PSBL FOR 2-3HRS AS THE
BAND OF TSRA MOVE THROUGH. GUSTY NW WIND 20-25KTS AND MVFR CIGS WL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA UNTIL CIGS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 37 48 27 / 10 90 20 0
MERIDIAN 81 37 49 26 / 0 90 10 0
VICKSBURG 83 38 49 27 / 20 90 10 0
HATTIESBURG 84 42 54 29 / 10 90 30 0
NATCHEZ 84 39 51 28 / 10 90 20 0
GREENVILLE 80 35 45 27 / 60 80 0 0
GREENWOOD 82 36 46 24 / 40 90 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040-041.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
042>066.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ074-075.
SAS20/EC/22
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