296
FXUS64 KJAN 231828
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- MONITORING AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A DRY COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND A >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN IOWA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES BY
THIS EVENING. THE COOL DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORTH TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL ELSEWHERE. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY, A LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED BACK ACROSS OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSOLATION, THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NOTABLE IMPACTS DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THAT OF A POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET ENERGY EXITING THE REGION, COULD
SPARK A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. THUS, OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS
CURRENTLY SLIM TO NONE, WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL AGAIN CONSIST OF QUIET WEATHER,
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS HIGHS AREAWIDE CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN, OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER IN ITS WAKE, GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, CURRENTLY LOOKS TO COMBINE WITH THE
ONGOING DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND FUELS TO POTENTIALLY BRING ABOUT
SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS. IF THE CURRENT MODEL TREND CONTINUES,
AT A MINIMUM, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FIRE DANGER MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
PRESENTLY, THIS LOOKS BEST ON SATURDAY AS THIS WILL BE WHEN WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AS DEW POINTS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS. THE GUSTY
N-NE WIND 18-20KTS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTN WL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 75 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 50 75 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 52 76 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 53 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 55 80 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 50 68 54 83 / 0 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 50 71 55 84 / 0 10 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page