115
FXUS64 KJAN 240553 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- MONITORING AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A DRY COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND A >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN IOWA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES BY
THIS EVENING. THE COOL DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORTH TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL ELSEWHERE. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY, A LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED BACK ACROSS OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSOLATION, THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NOTABLE IMPACTS DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THAT OF A POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET ENERGY EXITING THE REGION, COULD
SPARK A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. THUS, OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS
CURRENTLY SLIM TO NONE, WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL AGAIN CONSIST OF QUIET WEATHER,
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS HIGHS AREAWIDE CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN, OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER IN ITS WAKE, GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, CURRENTLY LOOKS TO COMBINE WITH THE
ONGOING DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND FUELS TO POTENTIALLY BRING ABOUT
SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS. IF THE CURRENT MODEL TREND CONTINUES,
AT A MINIMUM, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FIRE DANGER MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
PRESENTLY, THIS LOOKS BEST ON SATURDAY AS THIS WILL BE WHEN WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AS DEW POINTS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES,
WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 54 81 59 85 / 0 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 57 85 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 57 82 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 84 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 54 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 55 84 63 87 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/06
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