748
FXUS64 KJAN 260914
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.
CONCERNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG, AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS THERE THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH ADVECTION OF COASTAL FOG. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LIMITED/ELEVATED FOG THREAT AREAS IN THE
HWO GRAPHICS. ANOTHER GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO DROP IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER DUE TO MUCH DRIER (MINIMUM RH <
25%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) FOLLOWING
THE FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE
INCLUDED AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE HWO GRAPHICS, AND
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE'LL EVENTUALLY NEED A RED
FLAG WARNING, ESPECIALLY IF MIXING OVERACHIEVES AND ALLOWS FOR
STRONGER WIND.
OTHERWISE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES, BUT ONLY FOR
DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LAYER OF STRATUS MOVING OVER
THE SE TAF SITES RESULTING IN IFR/MFR CIGS. THESE IFR/MVFR CIGS
WL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO CNTRL MS. LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL
BE PSBL IN THE SE 09-13Z WHILE IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAIL CNTRL AND
EAST MS. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY 16Z TO VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY SW WIND
18-23KTS WL DEVELOP WEST AND CNTRL BY 16Z AND PREVAIL UNTIL 23Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 60 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 84 60 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 85 60 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 61 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 84 60 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 84 60 82 47 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 86 61 84 47 / 0 0 10 0
.
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/22
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