837
FXUS64 KJAN 261758
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.
CONCERNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG, AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS THERE THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH ADVECTION OF COASTAL FOG. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LIMITED/ELEVATED FOG THREAT AREAS IN THE
HWO GRAPHICS. ANOTHER GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO DROP IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER DUE TO MUCH DRIER (MINIMUM RH <
25%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) FOLLOWING
THE FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE
INCLUDED AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE HWO GRAPHICS, AND
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE'LL EVENTUALLY NEED A RED
FLAG WARNING, ESPECIALLY IF MIXING OVERACHIEVES AND ALLOWS FOR
STRONGER WIND.
OTHERWISE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES, BUT ONLY FOR
DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD. AROUND
10Z FRIDAY A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 84 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 85 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 60 84 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 87 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 85 53 71 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 60 82 47 66 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 84 47 69 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/KP
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