932
FXUS64 KJAN 262124 CCA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.
CONCERNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE CONCERN
WILL BE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG, AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS THERE THAT
RECENT GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH ADVECTION OF COASTAL FOG.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO DROP IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. IN ITS WAKE, MUCH
DRIER AIR (MINIMUM RH < 25%) COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
(PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH)WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THIS SETUP, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY
FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA, PARTICULARLY IF MIXING TRENDS STRONGER AND WINDS
OVERACHIEVE OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES, BUT ONLY FOR
DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH./EC/KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD. AROUND
10Z FRIDAY A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 84 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 86 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 60 84 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 86 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 85 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 60 81 46 65 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 60 84 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/KP
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