754
FXUS64 KJAN 280137 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
837 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
DUE TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE US 84 CORRIDOR, WITH VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS
IN ITS WAKE. A FEW GUSTS HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH IN THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA AREA. THERE ARE ALSO BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THOUGH MEASURABLE RAIN IS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS, ADDED
SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
ADDRESS THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A SHARP POLAR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION,
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WIND AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING THIS MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE FRONT WILL BE IMPACTFUL AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
CONCERNING STRONG WINDS: THE DENSITY DIFFERENCE OF THE PRE AND
POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BIG WIND
SURGE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS > 40 MPH IN THAT AREA HAVE PROMPTED FORMAL MESSAGING FOR
THE WIND THREAT, AND A WIND ADVISORY'S ISSUANCE LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS EVENING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY,
HELPING TO BRING A DIMINISHING WIND THREAT.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INSIGNIFICANT. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
ALL ON BOARD WITH THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT SATURDAY DUE
TO MUCH DRIER AIR (MINIMUM RH < 25%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. COMBINED WITH DRY
FUELS AND NATIVE VEGETATION IN A CRITICAL POINT IN GROWTH SEASON,
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY FROM 11AM TO 6PM
WHEN RHS REACH A CRITICAL POINT.
OTHERWISE, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BRIEF AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES,
BUT ONLY FOR DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES
CENTERED NEAR THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. /EC/KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY IN
THE DAY SATURDAY. BRIEF SHRA OR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 68 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 47 68 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 68 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 72 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 70 49 80 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 45 64 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 67 46 79 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC/KP
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