591
FXUS64 KJAN 130625
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED FIRE DANGER AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
NEAR TERM: WE REMAIN IN A WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN, PRIMARILY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH ADVECTION FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST MS. A SIMILAR REGIME IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT FIRST, FOR A CHANGE THIS
MORNING, THERE IS SOMETHING TO WATCH ON THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING TO OUR NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE INCITED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA YESTERDAY, AND
SOME OF THE REMNANT WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVING BEEN MOVING ACROSS
NORTH LA AND AR AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
FIGHTING A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS INTO TODAY, AND WE
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM. BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY.
IRONICALLY, WITH THIS TALK OF CLOUDS, FOG, AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS,
WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY FUELS FROM
THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY. AND AS LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY, RHS WILL FALL INTO THE 35 TO 50
PERCENT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST IN THE AREA. WHILE
THIS IS MARGINAL FOR FIRE CONCERNS, AND SPRING GREENUP WILL ALSO
HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT, THERE WERE SEVERAL SATELLITE FIRE
DETECTIONS YESTERDAY IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS, DRIVEN MOSTLY BY THE
WIND GUSTS. THUS, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK
FOR TODAY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK: WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE, WITH CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS MORE
COMMONLY GETTING INTO THE 60S EACH DAY AND TEMPS CONTINUING TO
TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
AROUND US THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION MAY COME THURSDAY,
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST AR, NORTH MS, AND NORTH LA AREAS. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE A
FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON ANY GIVEN DAY IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. OVERALL THOUGH, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND LIMITED FIRE DANGER COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE SHIFTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND, FORCING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OUR REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING PULLS AWAY, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR RAIN THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU ARE IN THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE IT IS LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE I-59 CORRIDOR.
WHILE ANY RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT SHAPING UP
TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT SHOULD, HOWEVER, PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A LOW STRATUS DECK IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
SITES POTENTIALLY FALLING TO MVFR. IN SOUTH MS, A FEW SITES MAY
EVEN BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR WITH A PERIOD ADVECTION FOG NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND GLH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT NO MAJOR DISRUPTIONS WILL
OCCUR. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 62 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 58 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 86 63 87 62 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 85 62 86 62 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 85 66 87 65 / 30 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 85 65 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL
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