649
FXUS64 KJAN 151735 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE US
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
REST OF TODAY...
MORNING SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF. THIS IS USHERING IN
MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE COASTAL STATES.
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK INTO THE 60S BUT SOME MIXING WILL
OCCUR, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION AND MOIST ASCENT, CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PERSIST. HIGHS
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 6F TO 12F ABOVE (82F TO 88F). HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THROUGH THIS MORNING:
AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING, MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT IS CREATING A FOG
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA GULF COASTS, SPREADING NORTH
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF FOG IS GREATEST, BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE PINE BELT
BY SUNRISE AS WELL.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, SPREADING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WITH ADVECTION/RADIATION EFFECTS. A DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BLUNT THE
CHANCE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY TOO FAR SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. TIMING LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE, AND MAY MISS BEST DAYTIME HEATING. THE 20-30%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRIMMED BACK INTO THE
US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL EVEN FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING A TROUGH AND COOLER
SURFACE AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTH AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (60%) OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR MID-APRIL. 1025+ MB IS
ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED (AND DRY) IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE ACHIEVABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. ANOTHER MORNING OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-
14Z THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN SITES, RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. AS THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATE, FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 86 64 89 / 0 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 86 61 89 / 0 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 87 65 89 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 62 87 62 89 / 0 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 67 86 66 89 / 10 30 10 0
GREENWOOD 66 85 66 90 / 0 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/SW
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