175
FXUS64 KJAN 161647 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1147 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
REST OF TODAY...
A MOSTLY QUIET AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH ISN'T
REALLY SQUEEZING OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH
IS PICKED UP IN CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS). MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS THERE ISN'T REALLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR ANY FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY GOING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE, EXPECT
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WHILE DRY AND WARM AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SEASONABLE WARMTH IS ON TAP (8F TO 12F ABOVE), WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY PEAKING INTO THE LOW 80S. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EARLIER UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THROUGH THIS MORNING:
PERHAPS A BIT DISRUPTED BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, FOG IS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG BY AROUND SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY AREA ALREADY IMPACTING FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US ARE KEEPING THE APPROACHING SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TODAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT, BUT DO STILL HAVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING AROUND THE US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
INTO TODAY. A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL EVEN FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING A TROUGH AND COOLER
SURFACE AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTH
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
(80%) OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG FOR MID-APRIL. 1025+ MB IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED (AND DRY) IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE ACHIEVABLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES FARTHER EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR POPS TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG PRODUCING A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO START THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR AT ALL SITES BY AROUND 15Z TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT SOME
SITES BY AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 61 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 87 64 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 87 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 85 65 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 85 67 88 66 / 20 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 85 66 89 66 / 20 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF
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