721
FXUS64 KJAN 180006 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
706 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES F WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR MID-
APRIL. HIGHS IN A FEW PLACES COULD APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE F MARK,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S F AT NOON.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW, WITH UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP
FORCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, BUT AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 300-400
J/KG RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING, LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND TRAILING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT, IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST,
APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY EARLY EVENING, AND
FINALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. AVERAGE QPF IS AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR COULD RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS LIKELY PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FULLY BY AROUND DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL GENERALLY END NORTH TO SOUTH. /NF/86/
THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR
MID-APRIL. 1025+ MB IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED (AND DRY)
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A LITTLE COOLER THAN 50 DEGREES TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN
WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE
HIGH TRANSLATES FARTHER EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, SOME MOISTURE RETURN
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 10Z WHEN IFR/LIFR
VSBYS WL BE PSBL IN THE SE AGAIN. MVFR CIGS WL BE PSBL CNTRL BY
12Z. THESE CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY 15Z. BY 15Z -SHRA MAY COME IN
VCTY OF GLH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER GLH BY
20Z AND BE NEAR A GTR-JAN-HEZ LINE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND CNTRL TAF
SITES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST AND SE SAT AFTN. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 85 50 71 / 0 30 90 10
MERIDIAN 60 85 49 71 / 0 10 80 20
VICKSBURG 64 84 50 72 / 0 50 90 0
HATTIESBURG 61 87 53 72 / 0 0 60 30
NATCHEZ 64 85 51 72 / 0 30 80 10
GREENVILLE 67 80 49 71 / 0 80 80 0
GREENWOOD 66 82 49 72 / 0 80 90 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/86/NF/22
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