494
FXUS64 KJAN 181747
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BRIEF WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SINK
INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
FORCING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SUBSEVERE WIND GUST. 12Z JAN
SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF REMNANT DRY AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
850, INDICATIVE OF LESS THAN IDEAL MOIST TRAJECTORIES. SO, WHILE
THERE WILL BE RAIN (YAY!), THERE WON'T BE MUCH, AS EXPECTED TOTALS
ARE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE RATES,
LIKELY NORTHWEST, BUT DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST, RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO BECOME
ANAFRONTAL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING STORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASED STRATIFORM RAIN. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS VERY DRY AIR USHERS IN. THIS
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 10 MPH WINDS. IT IS TOO SOON TO
TELL HOW THE RAINFALL WILL MODERATE RH, BUT FIRE THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY, DESPITE THE WIND AND DRY
AIR, SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES
REESTABLISHED. IT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR BY REDIRECTING MOIST
TRAJECTORIES WESTWARD AND DEFLECT ENERGY AWAY FROM THE AREA. THINGS
LOOK TO CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE
WEST AND BECOMES PHASED WITH THE POLAR JET. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
NOSES IN CREATING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
DIFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOOD NEWS AS THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE EVEN BEYOND THE PERIOD. WHILE FLOW IS PERTURBED, IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL HOW THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INFLUENCE ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE CHANCES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LOWER STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO MVFR AT GLH AND HEZ. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WITH THIS
FRONT, RAIN AND STORMS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS NEAR 20MPH AND MVFR
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LOWER VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUNDER IS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE PRECIP. TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY STICKS AROUND THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY IN THE WAKE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 72 45 78 / 90 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 72 44 78 / 80 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 72 45 78 / 80 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 72 45 80 / 70 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 73 46 78 / 80 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 71 48 77 / 30 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 72 45 79 / 60 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/SAS20
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