545
FXUS64 KJAN 040536 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1236 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LINGERING DRY AIR MASS,
LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES, AND LOWERED THE
DEW POINTS TO LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
INCREASE AND THUS EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY, WITH THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING ADVERTISED ON OUR SITE.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON WHICH GLOBAL MODEL YOU LOOKS AT, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ALONG THE COAST. /15/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
IN SOUTHEAST SITES (PIB AND HBG), WHERE NEAR CALM WINDS RESIDE.
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE (GLH AND GWO) AFTER
04/16Z MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT INTO THE EVENING. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 58 82 67 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 80 54 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 79 59 84 67 / 0 0 10 20
HATTIESBURG 81 54 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 79 59 84 68 / 0 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 81 62 84 66 / 0 0 10 40
GREENWOOD 81 60 82 67 / 0 0 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/15/DC
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