006
FXUS64 KJAN 040815 CCA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LINGERING DRY AIR MASS,
LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES, AND LOWERED THE
DEW POINTS TO LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK (THURSDAY): QUIET PERIOD TO
START THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL PEAK UP IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD (WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY). LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EARLY THIS
MORNING, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY
HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (78F TO 82F), WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING IN THE PINE BELT WHERE DECOUPLING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
RESIDE, BUT NO CONCERN TO INTRODUCE IN HWO. AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
(850MB HIGH) SHIFTS EAST, SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
BRING AN UPTICK IN MOIST ADVECTION AND THERMAL MOIST PROFILES BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A
MIDWEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. SYNOPTICS WILL CONSIST OF A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH, STRETCHED FROM THE BASE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BAJA
PENINSULA ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO INTO CANADA.
STRENGTHENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LAGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES BACK IN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY
PICKING UP MIDWEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS INTRODUCED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST, WHICH IS LIKELY FOCUSED
FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME IN THE DELTA. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ADVERTISE THIS LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT AS SHEAR PROFILES BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING, WITH INCREASED LIKELIHOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL REALLY PICK UP TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
PEAKING SOME 8F TO 12F ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS PEAK AROUND THE LOW TO
MID 80S (82F TO 87F). RAIN CHANCES PICK UP AROUND TO AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (20 TO 55 PERCENT) NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR (35 TO 65KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM
LAYERS, RESPECTIVELY) AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION
(MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 DEG C, VERTICAL TOTALS OF 25C TO
27C AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG). STORM MODE WITH
PREDOMINATELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD BE SUPERCELL TO
SPLITTING CELL/MULTICELL VARIETY, SO ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ANAFRONTAL, WHICH WOULD LIMIT IT
TO MORE HAIL. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT IN HWO GRAPHICS FOR WEDNESDAY,
WHILE REFINING THE MODES OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY (AROUND 2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER), WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS). PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 TO 4 INCHES
ARE REASONABLE (30 TO 55 PERCENT GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND 20 TO 40
PERCENT GREATER THAN 4 INCHES). HOLDING OFF MENTION OF FLASH
FLOODING IN HWO GRAPHICS DUE TO RECENT DROUGHT BUT IF THESE TOTALS
OCCUR OVER A SHORT DURATION, A LIMITED MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
FORECAST CYCLES.
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGH
(35 TO 55 PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, 55 TO 75 PERCENT
ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND UP TO 85 PERCENT IN THE DELTA TO HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR). RAIN TOTALS WILL BE DECENT IN SOME AREAS (GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE TO AROUND AN INCH
OR HIGHER TO THE NORTHWEST). AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD, THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL CUTOFF NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA TO SIERRA MADRES,
LEAVING A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE
REMAIN THE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY BUT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, WHILE LESS TO THE NORTHWEST. RAIN
TOTALS COULD REACH A TOUCH HIGHER THURSDAY (AROUND AN INCH AND A
QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF). RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY
APPROACH AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP OUR
ONGOING RAINFALL DEFICITS AND DROUGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DURING THIS WET PERIOD ON THURSDAY, SOME 8F TO 12F
BELOW (66F TO 71F NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WHILE 72F TO 78F
TO THE SOUTHEAST).
LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO LATE WEEK. SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE
FEATURES WILL CONSIST OF SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY BUT CLEARING OUT OF THE CORRIDOR AND INTO THE PINE
BELT TO HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY.
SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST, SOME 5F TO 8F BELOW (72F TO
78F FOR HIGHS AND 48F TO 56F FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING), WHILE
SEASONABLE FRIDAY NIGHT (LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 TO
MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE). CONFIDENCE IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE ARKLATEX IS
IN QUESTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF RAIN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW, RAIN
COVERAGE MAY PICK UP IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES BUT REMAIN ON THE
LOW PROBABILISTIC SIDE (15 TO 25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECOME MORE SEASONABLE AS RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND (HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S). /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
IN SOUTHEAST SITES (PIB AND HBG), WHERE NEAR CALM WINDS RESIDE.
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE (GLH AND GWO) AFTER
04/16Z MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT INTO THE EVENING. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 58 83 67 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 80 53 83 64 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 80 60 85 68 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 80 55 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 80 59 85 68 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 80 63 84 67 / 0 10 10 40
GREENWOOD 80 60 82 67 / 0 10 20 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF
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