995
FXUS64 KJAN 041833
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
133 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE UP
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF
OF AMERICA WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL PHASE WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATE DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH, WILL CAUSE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, ENSUING INCREASES IN
INSTABILITY, DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE, COULD
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAKING IT INTO FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. A "MARGINAL RISK"
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY EXISTS THERE. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON, CAUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD.
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S, WILL AID IN YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES HOVERING IN THE
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR (0-6 KM VALUES 50-65 KNOTS), STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(7-7.5 C/KM) AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 26-28C WILL ALL COMBINE TO BRING
ABOUT THIS THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE (ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL STORMS) WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, SOME CONCERN FOR SHORT-
DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD
YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DESPITE LAST
WEEKS RAINFALL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH SOILS HAVING ALREADY DRIED AND RECOVERED FROM SAID RAINS
LAST WEEK. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL,
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE DATA.
WITH CONVECTION LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
INCONSISTENCIES IN GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY EXIST. REGARDLESS,
CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE UP EACH DAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WIND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE >15KTS SUSTAINED AND >25KTS GUSTS.
/KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 84 67 83 / 0 10 10 80
MERIDIAN 54 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 70
VICKSBURG 60 84 68 84 / 0 10 10 80
HATTIESBURG 55 84 64 87 / 0 10 0 50
NATCHEZ 59 84 68 86 / 0 10 0 70
GREENVILLE 63 83 68 77 / 10 10 40 90
GREENWOOD 60 82 68 80 / 0 20 40 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/KP
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