070
FXUS64 KJAN 051743 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TROUGH NORTHEAST LA, SOUTHEAST AR, AND
NORTHWEST MS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK (THURSDAY): QUIET PERIOD TO
START THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL PEAK UP IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD (WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY). LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE (850MB
HIGH) SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA, SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN MOIST ADVECTION AND THERMAL
MOIST PROFILES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDWEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR AND SYNOPTIC
IMAGERY DEPICT MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH, STRETCHED FROM THE BASE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BAJA PENINSULA ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TO INTO CANADA. STRENGTHENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
GULF KEEP THE TROUGH AXIS LAGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS GETTING SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
GOING IN THE OZARKS IN WESTERN AR AND THIS WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA
REGION, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. AS A LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES
ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THIS EVENING, GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
PERSIST. REFER TO VALID PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE TO REASONING OF
INTRODUCTION IN HWO GRAPHICS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
A MARGINAL RISK IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA, WITH NO ACTIVITY REALLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE IF SOME
ACTIVITY ONGOING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DELTA
REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL REALLY PICK
UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES PEAKING SOME 8F TO 12F ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS PEAK AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 80S (82F TO 87F). RAIN CHANCES PICK UP AROUND TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (20 TO 55 PERCENT) IN THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR (35 TO 65KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM
LAYERS, RESPECTIVELY) AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION
(MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 TO 8 DEG C, VERTICAL TOTALS OF 25C
TO 27C AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG). STORM MODE WITH
PREDOMINATELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD BE SUPERCELL TO
SPLITTING CELL/MULTICELL VARIETY, SO ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES IN SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODE AND INCREASED CLOCKWISE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS (STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 250-350 M2/S2), WHICH
WILL INCREASE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES. INCREASED THE
CONFIDENCE WORDING OF TORNADOES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SOME
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ANAFRONTAL, WHICH WOULD LIMIT IT TO MORE
HAIL. ADDED ONSET TIMING, GENERALLY AFTER 2PM WEDNESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL REINVIGORATE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY IN THE PINE
BELT. HOLDING OFF INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL FROM SPC IN HWO
GRAPHICS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY (AROUND 2 TO 2.5
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 330-340K 850MB THETA E) COMBINED WITH
STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW AROUND 45-50KTS, STILL COULD RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE REASONABLE (30 TO 70 PERCENT GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES AND 25 TO 50 PERCENT GREATER THAN 4 INCHES). HOLDING
OFF MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING IN HWO GRAPHICS DUE TO RECENT DROUGHT
BUT IF THESE TOTALS OCCUR OVER A SHORT DURATION, A LIMITED MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGH
(35 TO 55 PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, 40 TO 80 PERCENT
ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND UP TO 90 PERCENT IN THE DELTA TO HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR). RAIN TOTALS WILL BE DECENT IN SOME AREAS (GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE TO AROUND AN INCH
OR HIGHER TO THE NORTHWEST). AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD, THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL CUTOFF, KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
REGION. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE REMAIN THE HIGHEST ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY BUT SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE, WHILE LESS TO THE NORTHWEST. RAIN TOTALS COULD REACH A TOUCH
HIGHER THURSDAY (AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND THREE
QUARTERS). RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP OUR ONGOING RAINFALL DEFICITS AND DROUGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL DURING THIS WET PERIOD ON
THURSDAY, SOME 6F TO 14F BELOW (66F TO 71F NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE WHILE 72F TO 80F TO THE SOUTHEAST).
LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO LATE WEEK. SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE
FEATURES WILL CONSIST OF CUTOFF LOW ALOFT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE INTO THE PINE BELT TO
HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST, SOME 5F TO 8F BELOW (72F TO 76F
FOR HIGHS AND 48F TO 58F FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING), WHILE SEASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT (LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 TO UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60S DEGREES ELSEWHERE). CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LAGGING
STRONGER CUTOFF LOW STALLING IN THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RAIN COVERAGE PERSISTING IN THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR A LITTLE LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
NOW, AFTERNOON RAIN COVERAGE REMAIN ON THE LOW PROBABILISTIC SIDE
(15 TO 25 PERCENT). AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE ARLATEX INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO PICK UP, LIKELY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY, CLEARING OUT LATE SATURDAY AND FILLING BACK IN SUNDAY (25
TO 40 PERCENT) AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOME MORE SEASONABLE AS RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND (HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
SATURDAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT TO LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT). /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CURRENTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SITES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RANGING BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A MIX OF SUN AND
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10
KTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AS
RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AT NORTHERN
SITES. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 83 64 74 / 10 80 90 60
MERIDIAN 64 83 64 76 / 10 70 90 70
VICKSBURG 69 83 61 71 / 10 80 90 50
HATTIESBURG 65 85 69 78 / 0 50 60 80
NATCHEZ 69 85 64 73 / 0 70 80 60
GREENVILLE 69 76 56 68 / 40 90 90 30
GREENWOOD 69 78 58 70 / 30 90 90 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW
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