818
FXUS64 KJAN 051856
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA LATE
TONIGHT.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES, ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SOME TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SOME DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WILL AGAIN BE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER BEFORE THAT, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TOWARDS DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE APPROACHING FRONT,
INCREASED INSTABILITY THERE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, & ADEQUATE
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD INDEED WANDER
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST DELTA REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE, A
"MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, AS SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN ACROSS THE THE CWA. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY, IT'LL MOVE INTO AN AREA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL HOVER IN
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS,
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR (0-6 KM VALUES 50-65 KNOTS & 0-3 KM
VALUES 30-40 KNOTS), STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-8 C/KM)
AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 26-28C WILL ALL COMBINE TO BRING ABOUT THIS
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO STILL
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS CAP. HOWEVER COME LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, THIS CAP ERODES AND MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SPLITTING CELL/MULTI-CELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASED CURVED
HODOGRAPHS IN DATA INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES THAT ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS (0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN
250-350 M2/S2), ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND OVERALL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THIS HAS LIKEWISE AGAIN
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS
A RESULT, AN "ENHANCED RISK" (LEVEL 3 OF 5) NOW EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MAINLY NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS, AND TORNADOES (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG) WILL BE THE
THREATS IN THIS "ENHANCED RISK" AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA, A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS. LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS, AND TORNADOES. FINALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INSTABILITY WILL WANE SOME DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, SOME WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA
WHERE HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF
EXISTS, A "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TO REITERATE, CURRENTLY SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY WILL POSE
MORE OF A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS. THAT SAID, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, ALONG
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MAINLY BE
BETWEEN 4 PM WEDNESDAY AND 1 AM THURSDAY AS BOTH WIND FIELDS AND
SHEAR WILL BE AT THEIR BEST. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A HAIL
THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES, SOME CONCERN FOR SHORT-DURATION
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CONVECTION MAY YIELD SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH WE STILL
HAVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, RAINFALL TOTALS
MEASURING 2-4 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING WILL BE
ADDED TO THIS AFTERNOON'S SUITE OF HWO GRAPHICS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS THE
MAIN TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION A THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND
AGAIN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CURRENTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SITES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RANGING BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A MIX OF SUN AND
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10
KTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MVFR THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AS
RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AT NORTHERN
SITES. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 81 64 73 / 0 80 90 50
MERIDIAN 65 82 64 76 / 0 70 90 70
VICKSBURG 70 83 61 71 / 10 90 100 40
HATTIESBURG 65 84 68 79 / 0 60 70 80
NATCHEZ 69 85 64 73 / 0 80 90 50
GREENVILLE 66 74 56 69 / 40 90 90 20
GREENWOOD 68 77 58 71 / 40 90 90 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/
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