201
FXUS64 KJAN 062344 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLOODING ARE LIKELY, WITH
FURTHER DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THERE HAVE INDEED BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RESPECTED THREAT
AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED UPON BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES
MODEL DATA. THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE THREAT AREAS HAVE BEEN
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FOR EACH. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A STEADIER
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE COOLER DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SETTLING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, IN ADDITION TO A
GOOD CAPPING INVERSION REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SAMPLED WITH SPECIAL KJAN RAOBS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS ELUDED TO EARLIER, THIS CAP, ALONG WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, COULD PLAY A
SIZEABLE ROLL IN HAMPERING BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH WHERE THE BEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SETS UP.
FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 6 PM, STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
WILL PRIMARILY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 70
MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS AREAS CURRENTLY RESIDING IN BOTH THE "ENHANCED RISK"
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) AND THE "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AREAS. SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NAMELY ACROSS THE
DELTA REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THERE, A "MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS, WITH A
LOW END THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AS WE MOVE INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AN AREA OF ASCENT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EXPECTED WEAKENING CAP, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND INCREASING OVERALL WIND SHEAR AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASES FURTHER. DURING THIS TIME
AND TO A GREATER EXTENT, THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCREASES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN BOTH THE
"ENHANCED RISK" AND "SLIGHT RISK" AREAS, WITH A STRONG TORNADO
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE "ENHANCED RISK" AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, AN "ELEVATED THREAT"
FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION, 2-2.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY
BE THE CASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH, AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.
HERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER, WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.
CURRENTLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO FINALLY WRAP UP
ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 1-3 AM THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. /19/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO LATE WEEK. SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONSIST OF CUTOFF
LOW ALOFT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE INTO THE PINE BELT TO HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS
BUT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
DAY. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE ARLATEX INTO THE WEEKEND,
EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO PICK UP SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY (25 TO 55
PERCENT) AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOME MORE SEASONABLE AS RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND (HIGHS IN UPPER 70S FRIDAY TO LOW TO
MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND LOWS IN
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY NIGHT TO LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT). AS SHORTWAVE BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND DEEPENING AXIS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL HELP DRIVE
CLEARING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES OUT LIKELY BY EARLY
TO MIDDAY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE. /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, RESULTING IN VARIOUS FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SITES.
SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOUR. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.RAIN/STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 74 56 74 / 100 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 62 75 54 74 / 90 20 0 30
VICKSBURG 58 73 56 75 / 90 0 10 40
HATTIESBURG 67 78 59 73 / 80 60 20 60
NATCHEZ 61 75 59 74 / 100 10 30 70
GREENVILLE 55 71 54 76 / 80 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 73 52 77 / 90 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/SW
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