512
FXUS64 KJAN 072128
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS
WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AFTER A BREAK IN THE STORM THREATS TODAY, WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RESUME AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY, AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL. THIS LONG DURATION OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NOT TYPICAL FOR OUR AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MID MAY, AND IT
PROMISES TO BRING A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, PERTURBED
FLOW, AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR GETTING ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND THREATS.
THE FRIDAY MARGINAL RISK OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE EXIT REGION OF
BUCKLING UPPER JET, AND THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE EJECTING BAJA LOW. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY FOR STORM
INITIATION IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND NIGHTTIME MCS POTENTIAL, SO
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE THREAT AREA CHANGES. FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY, A POLAR STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD OUR REGION COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ORGANIZED MCS BRINGING AT
LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT, SO PERSONS IN OUR AREA
SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE
AMPLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WE COULD SEE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
EVOLVE AS VERY MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD, RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE WITH THE EVENTUAL
EXIST OF THE EASTERN NA TROUGH AND DIMINISHING SUBTROPICAL STREAM
INFLUENCE. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS AND HELPS TO ERODE THE STRATUS DECK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT A RETURN OF IFR/MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE HEZ TO HBG/PIB
CORRIDOR. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARM ADVECTION
BRING A RETURN OF TSRA POTENTIAL TO THE SAME CORRIDOR. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 74 62 79 / 0 20 70 50
MERIDIAN 54 73 59 78 / 0 10 70 60
VICKSBURG 56 74 62 80 / 0 30 70 40
HATTIESBURG 58 73 62 78 / 0 40 70 90
NATCHEZ 58 74 64 80 / 0 70 60 60
GREENVILLE 53 75 60 81 / 0 0 40 30
GREENWOOD 52 77 60 81 / 0 0 60 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/
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