949
FXUS64 KJAN 080609
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS
WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AFTER A BREAK IN THE STORM THREATS TODAY, WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RESUME AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY, AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL. THIS LONG DURATION OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NOT TYPICAL FOR OUR AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MID MAY, AND IT
PROMISES TO BRING A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, PERTURBED
FLOW, AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR GETTING ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND THREATS.
THE FRIDAY MARGINAL RISK OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
BUCKLING UPPER JET, AND THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE EJECTING BAJA LOW. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION
IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND NIGHTTIME MCS POTENTIAL, SO IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF THE THREAT AREA CHANGES. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY, A POLAR
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION COULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER ORGANIZED MCS BRINGING AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT, SO PERSONS IN OUR AREA SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR
FORECAST UPDATES. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
RECENTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WE COULD SEE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EVOLVE AS VERY MOIST AIR WILL
BE TRANSPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD, RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE WITH THE EVENTUAL
EXIST OF THE EASTERN NA TROUGH AND DIMINISHING SUBTROPICAL STREAM
INFLUENCE. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. IFR CATEGORY STRATUS COULD
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE HBG/PIB AREA, WITH MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS AT OTHER TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT IS NOT GREAT IN THE TAFS. STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY
AND EXPAND NORTHWARD LATER IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN, AND WE
SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN OF TSRA POTENTIAL TO MAINLY THE HEZ TO
HBG/PIB CORRIDOR./KP/EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 62 79 63 / 20 70 50 40
MERIDIAN 73 59 78 62 / 10 70 60 40
VICKSBURG 74 62 80 63 / 30 70 40 30
HATTIESBURG 73 62 78 64 / 40 70 90 50
NATCHEZ 74 64 80 65 / 70 60 60 30
GREENVILLE 75 60 81 63 / 0 40 30 10
GREENWOOD 77 60 81 63 / 0 60 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/KP
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