039
FXUS64 KJAN 080738
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY,
RETURNING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST
OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA, BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD
MUCAPE OF AROUND 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR OF 50
TO 55 KTS ACROSS THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME ORGANIZATION TO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION OF SHEAR
VECTORS THOUGH SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHOULD GROW UPSCALE PARALLEL TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY AND
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, WITH PRIMARILY HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BEING THE THREATS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK, THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER REPRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL PUSH INSTABILITY FARTHER
NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS WILL
TRIGGER STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR
AREA AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND WIND WOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, BUT ANY BOWING SEGMENT COULD ALWAYS POSE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO RISK SHOULD ONE DEVELOP. THE REMAINING BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, AND A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY, EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MONDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 7 DAYS (AROUND 48-52 DEGREES), BUT
NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL. AND THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL
RETURN AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. IFR CATEGORY STRATUS COULD
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE HBG/PIB AREA, WITH MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS AT OTHER TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT IS NOT GREAT IN THE TAFS. STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY
AND EXPAND NORTHWARD LATER IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN, AND WE
SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN OF TSRA POTENTIAL TO MAINLY THE HEZ TO
HBG/PIB CORRIDOR./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 63 80 64 / 40 70 50 30
MERIDIAN 73 60 79 62 / 20 80 60 30
VICKSBURG 74 63 80 64 / 40 70 50 20
HATTIESBURG 72 63 79 64 / 80 70 70 40
NATCHEZ 73 65 80 65 / 80 60 60 30
GREENVILLE 76 62 82 63 / 10 50 20 10
GREENWOOD 77 61 82 62 / 0 60 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP
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