555
FXUS64 KJAN 090310 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE STORM RISK FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT SEVERE STORM RISK NOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX THROUGH SOUTH
AR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THOUGH THIS IS A TRICKY
REGIME TO PLACE MUCH TRUST IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE, AT LEAST IF
YOU'RE LOOKING FOR ANY DEGREE OF SPECIFICITY, THIS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN CONVECTION FLOURISHING OVERNIGHT AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO OUR WEST SPREAD
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IS THE STRONGEST
STORMS, AND IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WE COULD SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PUSHING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL IN
ALL, EXPECTATIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PINEBELT REGION TODAY IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PLUS A
LARGE ANVIL CANOPY HAS HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, AND THIS MAKES ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING QUITE LOW.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, OUR
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THERE IS A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR STREAM AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM, AND
PERTURBURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS GRADIENT IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST OF THESE IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE
TONIGHT, AND WE SHOULD SEE DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE ROUGHLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT, THAT IS IF MUCH
OF THE NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. WITH
THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS COULD EASILY ORGANIZE, AND IF
THAT HAPPENS, A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE FOR THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER, THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATER SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. CAVEAT HERE IS THAT NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS ON
BOARD WITH THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO, AND IF IT
DOESN'T HAPPEN AS EXPECTED, STORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE GREATER
DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW, WE WILL
BE MESSAGING FOR THE EARLY MORNING SCENARIO AND MAY BUMP UP THE
SEVERE THREAT TO SLIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL GREATER STORM
COVERAGE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO THREATS, AND
STRAIGHT-LINE DOWNDRAFT WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG
WITH SOME HAIL. IN ADDITION, VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, SO A LIMITED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME, AT LEAST ONE MORE
POLAR STREAM PERTURBATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE UPDATED SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS
INCREASED WITH A SLIGHT RISK NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THE SLIGHT
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MORE OF THE AREA FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS COULD EVOLVE AS WELL BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MESSAGING GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF FLASH FLOODING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL STREAM
INTERACTION WILL RELAX AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN BEYOND MONDAY GOING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MVFR TO IFR/LIFR STRATUS DECKS PERSIST FOR MANY SITES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A GENERAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. A COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF GLH/GWO/GTR. A FEW
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT. TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT MORNING WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, AND MAY
REMAIN AT MVFR OR IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
SITES FROM TVR/JAN/MEI AND SOUTH. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 79 64 83 / 90 60 20 50
MERIDIAN 61 79 62 83 / 80 70 20 50
VICKSBURG 63 80 64 84 / 80 50 10 40
HATTIESBURG 63 79 64 84 / 80 80 40 60
NATCHEZ 64 80 65 84 / 90 60 20 50
GREENVILLE 62 82 64 84 / 40 10 20 60
GREENWOOD 62 83 63 85 / 50 10 10 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC
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