959
FXUS64 KJAN 090553
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE STORM RISK FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT SEVERE STORM RISK NOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS MORNING:
THE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND
ORGANIZING FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY TO MOVE INTO (EVEN CONSIDERING MUCAPE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS), BUT THE WEST-EAST LINE TRAILING BEHIND IT IS
DEVELOPING IN A ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY, QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR MCS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD POOL DYNAMICS SHOULD PUSH THE
LINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MORNING AS IT FILLS IN. LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST THE LINE CLEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY AROUND 900-1000
AM, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MORNING.
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY:
THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WELL ENOUGH
AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. CERTAINLY ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH THE MCS AND NOT RE-DEVELOP TODAY. A LATER MCS
MAY MAKE AN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT, BUT WE'RE
EYING DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION,
AND AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST AR, FAR NORTHEAST LA, AND PARTS OF
THE MS DELTA REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR EARLY TO
MID MAY, EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 7 DAYS (AROUND 48-52
DEGREES), BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL. AND THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S WILL RETURN AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CATEGORIES WILL RANGE FROM VFR-IFR AS LOW STRATUS DECKS PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WHILE VCTS/TSRA INTERMITTENTLY IMPACTS
NORTHERN TAF GLH/GWO/GTR SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT. TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SAT MORNING WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, AND MAY
REMAIN AT MVFR OR IFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
SITES FROM TVR/JAN/MEI AND SOUTH./KP/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 64 83 64 / 60 20 50 60
MERIDIAN 79 62 83 63 / 70 20 50 60
VICKSBURG 80 64 84 64 / 50 10 40 60
HATTIESBURG 79 64 84 65 / 80 40 60 70
NATCHEZ 80 65 84 66 / 60 20 50 70
GREENVILLE 82 64 84 62 / 10 20 60 70
GREENWOOD 83 63 85 63 / 10 10 50 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP/DL
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