754
FXUS64 KJAN 251411 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AN MCV WAS NOTED SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST LAMAR
AND NORTHWEST FOREST COUNTIES. THIS MCV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY AND COMBINE WITH OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT
THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. PROVIDED THE MVC TRACKS AS
EXPECTED IT SHOULD SHIFT INTO ALABAMA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS ENDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR CWA. A "LIMITED"
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER THE WHOLE CWA BUT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT LOCAL RADAR SCANS SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH TOWARDS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER EAST
TENNESSEE, WITH THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE LOW 80S AREAWIDE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (POPS UP TO 80%) OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR TWO
INCHES AND SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FLOOD GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL REASSESS PRECIP TRENDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY TO TO SEE IF A "ELEVATED"
RISK MAY BE NEEDED. IF AN "ELEVATED" RISK IS INTRODUCED FOR OUR
AREA, IT WILL MAINLY BE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THAT TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A REINVIGORATED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT IS STILL NOT ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME GIVEN RECENT
GUIDANCE INCONSISTENCIES. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE INGREDIENTS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN A VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS, AND FAIRLY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
REMAIN IN OUR REGION. HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND TYPICAL
LATE MAY TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WE GO THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 68 82 70 / 70 60 70 30
MERIDIAN 80 68 81 70 / 100 60 80 40
VICKSBURG 82 67 84 70 / 60 40 60 30
HATTIESBURG 80 69 81 70 / 100 50 100 40
NATCHEZ 82 68 84 71 / 60 50 70 30
GREENVILLE 82 68 84 70 / 40 50 50 40
GREENWOOD 82 68 84 70 / 60 50 70 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/15
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