123
FXUS64 KJAN 291810
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: WE REMAIN IN A QUITE HUMID AIRMASS, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF. ADDITIONALLY, AN MCV THAT HELPED DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IS STILL LOCATED AROUND THE ARKLAMISS DELTA.
ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG GIVEN
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND THE REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AND AR, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TRAILING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE DAILY
DRUMBEAT OF A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT MAY SEEM NEVERENDING, BUT GIVEN
90TH PERCENTILE PWS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA, CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN.
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL, WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING MOIST, DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND PW TREND UPWARD AGAIN.
NEXT WEEK: THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STAGNANT OVER THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
EACH DAY. DURING THIS STRETCH, DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BEGIN TO REACH
THE 90S IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, THIS WILL NUDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING A TEMPORARY
BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR POINTS FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST IN THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS PREVIOUSLY DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE AND VARIES ON HOW FAR IT MIGHT IMPINGE
INTO THE REGION, SO CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH HUMIDITY RELIEF AND
SUBTLE CHANGE IN TEMP WE WILL SEE IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, AREAS
LIKE THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 60S AND MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THAN AREAS LIKE THE MISSLOU, WHERE DEWPOINTS AND MORNING
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S THE ENTIRE TIME. REGARDLESS, ANY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH A
RETURNING INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MOST TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY BRING A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO SITES AFTER 09-10Z./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 70 88 72 / 70 20 30 0
MERIDIAN 84 69 87 71 / 50 40 40 0
VICKSBURG 85 71 89 73 / 60 20 50 10
HATTIESBURG 86 70 88 72 / 60 30 50 0
NATCHEZ 86 71 90 74 / 60 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 84 70 89 72 / 60 20 20 20
GREENWOOD 85 70 88 71 / 80 40 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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