428
FXUS64 KJAN 121727 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER
OUR REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH WHILE A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA AND STALLS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY THAT MAY SPREAD
SOUTH AS FAR AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE 590DAM HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THESE
SHORTWAVES WERE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AND A BAND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CAMS
THAT BRING THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING BUT
LATEST CONSENSUS HAS THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AND ARRIVING IN OUR
CWA MUCH SLOWER. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CONVECTION, AN EARLY ARRIVAL MAY BUT DENTS IN OUR HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP
INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND MOST OF OUR CWA WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. IF THE
RAIN IN THE NORTH COMES IN EARLIER, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITING INSOLATION, HEAT INDICES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND DRIFT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY, THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SEE A DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND AND MOSTLY
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. /22/
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN THE STORY HEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S THROUGH SUNDAY AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 100-110F EACH
DAY. THIS DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS HAS RESULTED IN A "HEAT ADVISORY"
BEING HOISTED FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME CHANGES IN THE
LAYOUT OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES/PARISHES POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF DURING THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL BE APLENTY ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT THE YUCATAN, WILL OVERSPREAD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2.5 INCHES. THIS, AS A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION
RESULTING IN A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALLING, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
BOTH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS CATEGORICAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE, WITH A POSSIBLE "FLASH FLOOD
WATCH" NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE RANGING FROM VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
DAY, COULD AGAIN RESULT IN A DEGRADATION OF CATEGORIES FOR A 1-3
HOUR PERIOD. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND WILL
BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 3-5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 77 92 / 10 10 10 50
MERIDIAN 76 95 76 93 / 10 30 10 30
VICKSBURG 77 94 77 92 / 0 0 0 40
HATTIESBURG 75 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 40
GREENVILLE 77 94 78 91 / 10 10 20 60
GREENWOOD 76 95 78 91 / 10 10 20 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ075.
19
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