975
FXUS64 KJAN 121833
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
133 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF WILL BE
TEMPORARY AND IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR,
WILL SPARK SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SAID CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS AREN'T FORECAST, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY.
A "HEAT ADVISORY" WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
AROUND 105 YET AGAIN. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN ADDITION TO MORE CLOUD COVER, COULD
HALT THE EXTENSION OR RESULT IN SOME MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT
LAYOUT OF AFFECTED COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE ADVISED AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF DURING THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL BE AT AN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT THE YUCATAN AND THE
WESTERN GULF, WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN
2.25-2.5 INCHES. AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NATION'S MID-SECTION AND INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
SLOWS/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY, MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, ALONG WITH THE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
AS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE RANGING FROM VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
DAY, COULD AGAIN RESULT IN A DEGRADATION OF CATEGORIES FOR A 1-3
HOUR PERIOD. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND WILL
BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 3-5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 76 95 76 94 / 10 30 10 20
VICKSBURG 77 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 50
HATTIESBURG 75 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 40
GREENVILLE 77 94 78 91 / 10 10 20 70
GREENWOOD 76 95 78 92 / 10 10 20 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ075.
19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page