437
FXUS64 KJAN 141748
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT AND
RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE IN JUNE IT WILL LIKELY MAKE ONLY SLUGGISH PROGRESS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LAST EVENING'S
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE HELD DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER 100'SF. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ANTICIPATED. /22/86/
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
A SLOWLY SAGGING, NEARLY STALLED, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERAL SURGES OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WHICH COULD FALL LOCALLY IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WEAK
WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY
EXACERBATE FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT
AMOUNTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THIS FEATURE WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE WAVE WILL RATHER
QUICKLY EJECT OUT ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE
THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE OUTSIDE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF
EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AS WELL AS SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE IMPACTFUL,
METEOROLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SCENARIO. IN THE EURO CAMP, THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS SLOWER TO EJECT EASTWARD AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY, RAPIDLY DEEPENS THROUGH PRIMARILY BAROTROPIC
MEANS. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF GUIDANCE BROUGHT MINIMUM SURFACE
PRESSURES DOWN BELOW 990 MB. WHILE THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THAT, WHICH WOULD BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WERE IT TO BE DEEMED TROPICAL IN NATURE/SUFFICIENTLY
WARM-CORE, IT IS STILL SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WERE SOMETHING OF THIS STRONGER VARIETY TO
OCCUR, SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND STRETCHING WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO LA/TX.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT WITH LITTLE CROSS-MODEL SUPPORT AND THE
RARITY OF A TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO MEANINGFULLY INTENSIFY
WHILE INLAND, THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT CONSIDERED THE MOST
LIKELY, BUT WILL REQUIRE CAUTIOUS ATTENTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW
THIS UNUSUALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY CASE PLAYS OUT, RAIN LIKELY
CONTINUES EVEN IN THE WAKE AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW
LEVEL RIDGE REINFORCE THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
6/7, THERE REMAINS LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY DRIER PATTERNS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. /86/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/RA WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SITES THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 0Z BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. BY
06Z MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WIDESPREAD -RA AND LOWERED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 81 70 81 / 90 100 80 90
MERIDIAN 73 81 69 79 / 80 80 80 90
VICKSBURG 72 80 70 82 / 90 90 80 80
HATTIESBURG 75 84 72 80 / 60 80 70 100
NATCHEZ 74 82 72 81 / 90 90 90 100
GREENVILLE 70 79 67 84 / 80 70 40 30
GREENWOOD 71 81 67 85 / 70 70 40 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
86/SAS20/KP/22
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