999
FXUS64 KJAN 141829 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT AND RATHER
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN JUNE IT WILL LIKELY MAKE ONLY SLUGGISH PROGRESS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LAST EVENING'S
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE HELD DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER 100'SF. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ANTICIPATED. /22/86/
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (UPDATED)...
A SLOWLY SAGGING, NEARLY STALLED, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERAL SURGES OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WHICH COULD FALL LOCALLY IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WEAK WESTERLIES IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE FLOOD
THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE WAVE WILL RATHER QUICKLY EJECT OUT
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE
FANFARE OUTSIDE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AS WELL AS SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE IMPACTFUL, METEOROLOGICALLY UNUSUAL
SCENARIO. IN THE EURO CAMP, THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWER TO EJECT
EASTWARD AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY, RAPIDLY
DEEPENS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF BAROCLINIC AND BAROTROPIC
PROCESSES. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF GUIDANCE BROUGHT MINIMUM
SURFACE PRESSURES DOWN BELOW 990 MB. WHILE THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE (NOR THE 12Z), WHICH WOULD BE APPROACHING "TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY" WERE IT TO BE DEEMED SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE/SUFFICIENTLY WARM-CORE, IT IS STILL SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER
THAN THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE EURO IS RATHER
CLEAR IN IT'S INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE, THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM WERE IT TO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE FEATURES OF BOTH TROPICAL/NONTROPICAL SYSTEMS AND THE
12Z EURO IS EVEN CLEARER IN THAT EVOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WERE SOMETHING OF THIS STRONGER VARIETY TO OCCUR, SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
STRETCHING WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO LA/TX. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
WITH LITTLE CROSS- MODEL SUPPORT AND THE RARITY OF A TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM TO MEANINGFULLY INTENSIFY WHILE INLAND, THIS PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS NOT CONSIDERED THE MOST LIKELY, BUT WILL REQUIRE
CAUTIOUS ATTENTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS UNUSUALLY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY CASE PLAYS OUT, RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES EVEN IN THE WAKE
AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE REINFORCE THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOOKING BEYOND DAY 6/7, THERE REMAINS LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY DRIER PATTERNS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. /86/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/RA WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SITES THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 0Z BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. BY
06Z MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WIDESPREAD -RA AND LOWERED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 80 70 81 / 80 100 80 90
MERIDIAN 73 81 69 80 / 60 100 80 90
VICKSBURG 73 80 70 82 / 80 100 80 80
HATTIESBURG 76 84 72 79 / 70 90 90 100
NATCHEZ 75 81 71 81 / 90 90 90 100
GREENVILLE 71 80 67 84 / 60 60 30 30
GREENWOOD 71 81 67 85 / 50 60 40 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/SAS20/KP
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