293
FXUS64 KJAN 151140
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
640 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL MOIST AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PWAT
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS OF THIS EARLY MORNING. THE JACKSON METRO
AREA ALREADY SAW HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS A PREVIEW OF
WHATS TO COME FOR THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE AREA NEAR THE JACKSON METRO WITH POSITIVE THETA E
ADVECTION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. A CORFIDI VECTOR
"RIDGE" IS PRESENT, WITH SLOW CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPWIND VECTORS
THAT FAVOR BACK BUILDING. THIS SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE AN ELEVATED TO
THE FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
INCLUDING THE JACKSON METRO.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN, AND CERTAINLY HEAVIER RAIN,
LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES, WITH REINFORCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL GULF LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIKELY THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2.3-2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING TO
BE FINE TUNED AND EXTENDED INTO LATE WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FRIDAY FOR THE I-
20 CORRIDOR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES A FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SIGNIFICANT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR A TARGETED AREA THAT MAY GET IN ON ALL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH LIKELY WILL NOT PUSH OUT ENTIRELY. THE SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR
IN ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH OF I-20, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BREAK
FROM THE RAINFALL, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, AIRMASS CHANGE IS INSIGNIFICANT, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND RAIN CHANCES DON'T GO
AWAY COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE SEASONAL WITH
LESS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND DAY BREAK, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PREDOMINATE MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT SITES DURING THIS TIME, DUE TO
DEGRADATIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITIES AROUND CONVECTION, AND OVERALL
LOW CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 70 79 71 / 100 80 90 20
MERIDIAN 80 69 77 70 / 90 70 90 50
VICKSBURG 80 70 81 71 / 100 80 90 20
HATTIESBURG 82 72 78 71 / 90 60 90 50
NATCHEZ 80 72 80 72 / 90 90 90 20
GREENVILLE 82 68 84 71 / 30 40 40 10
GREENWOOD 83 68 84 70 / 40 40 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS/CR
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