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FXUS64 KJAN 151857
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ...
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES AS OF THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS FROM THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
AREA NEAR THE JACKSON METRO WITH POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FLOOD GRAPHIC AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LIKEWISE, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
"ELEVATED" RISK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED
FURTHER EAST TO COVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN MS AND COULD GET EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL REASSESS DURING THE EVENING SHIFT LATER
THIS EVENING TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION OF THE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /CR/
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
SAME WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN. A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY THANKS TO REINFORCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF
A TROPICAL GULF LOW. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
DOWN BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN, AND CERTAINLY HEAVIER RAIN,
LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES, WITH REINFORCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL GULF LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIKELY THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2.3-2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING TO
BE FINE TUNED AND EXTENDED INTO LATE WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FRIDAY FOR THE I-
20 CORRIDOR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES A FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SIGNIFICANT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR A TARGETED AREA THAT MAY GET IN ON ALL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH LIKELY WILL NOT PUSH OUT ENTIRELY. THE SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR
IN ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH OF I-20, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BREAK
FROM THE RAINFALL, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, AIRMASS CHANGE IS INSIGNIFICANT, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND RAIN CHANCES DON'T GO AWAY
COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE SEASONAL WITH LESS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE THE WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES (POPS BETWEEN 15-30%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA LOOKING AHEAD INTO MONDAY. /SAS/CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WIDESPREAD RA, BR AND LOWERED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 79 70 87 / 90 100 30 60
MERIDIAN 70 77 70 87 / 90 100 40 60
VICKSBURG 70 80 71 88 / 90 90 10 40
HATTIESBURG 72 78 71 86 / 80 90 60 80
NATCHEZ 72 79 72 87 / 90 100 40 70
GREENVILLE 70 84 71 89 / 40 50 20 10
GREENWOOD 70 84 71 90 / 50 60 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-047>049-
053>055-059>064-072.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/KP
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