432
FXUS64 KJAN 180039 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
739 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY LINGER.
RAINFALL DOES NOT END QUICKLY, BUT RATHER GRADUALLY TAPERS OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THROUGH THIS EVENING: LOCAL RADARS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN A RASH OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. TS
ARTHUR THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TONIGHT. TS ARTHUR
WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND AND TO THE
NORTHEAST, REACHING OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS TO OUR CWA FROM TS ARTHUR REMAIN
UNCHANGED AND WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. /22/
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (2.3-2.6 INCH
PWAT). GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY REMNANT
CIRCULATION, ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-END
RISK OF A BRIEF, WEAK, TORNADO OR TWO. THE PRIMARY THREAT BY LARGE
MARGIN CONTINUES TO BE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, LIKELY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH SOME RISK FOR IMPACTS TO STRUCTURES AND NUMEROUS
FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE AREAS OF HIGHEST RISK APPEAR TO BE
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI THOUGH FLASH
FLOOD RISKS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THIS "SIGNIFICANT" RISK AREA WILL LIKELY REACH 4 TO 8
INCHES THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THIS REPRESENTS AN EVENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH CEILING FOR FLOODING
IMPACTS WHICH COULD INCLUDE WATER RESCUES BEING NECESSARY WITH
IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
ENVIRONMENTS WHERE RUNOFF IS MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE CURRENT/EXISTING
WET CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING COULD BEGIN MORE QUICKLY THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAINS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. /LP/
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE AREA OF THE REMNANT LOW STALLS
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-20. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, A LOW END
(MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF
FLASH FLOOD RISK THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS PART OF THE NET
IMPACT WILL BE AFFECTED BY EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF THE HIGHER
TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW. A RISK OUTLOOK WAS NOT ISSUED THIS FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE THINKING THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE RIVERINE/AREAL WITH TIME. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SOME AREA RIVERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL RISES EXPECTED. /86/
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY WASHES OUT THIS WEEKEND. AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY SLIM,
BUT PWAT, WHILE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WILL BE
MORE SEASONAL (1.5-1.7). THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME "BREAK" FROM THE
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT
INCREASED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY
MEAN THAT RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RA AFTER 06Z AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 85 74 88 / 80 90 70 90
MERIDIAN 73 82 73 87 / 90 100 70 90
VICKSBURG 74 87 75 89 / 70 90 70 80
HATTIESBURG 74 84 76 90 / 90 100 60 80
NATCHEZ 74 88 77 91 / 90 90 50 80
GREENVILLE 75 89 74 87 / 20 50 70 80
GREENWOOD 75 88 74 87 / 40 70 80 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
LP/NF
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