657
FXUS64 KJAN 181213 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY LINGER.
RAINFALL DOES NOT END QUICKLY, BUT RATHER GRADUALLY TAPERS OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
TODAY...
THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS MADE THIS
AREA VULNERABLE. AS MUCH AS 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL, LOCALLY
HIGHER UPWARDS OF 10-12 INCHES IN SOME GUIDANCE AMID THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS, SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH PWAT AIRMASS, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CONSIDERING THIS, WE KNOW THAT 8 INCH AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED OR
ESTIMATED, SO IT IS LIKELY THIS AIRMASS WOULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF
THOSE AMOUNTS. FURTHER, PROBABILITIES FOR 8 INCHES HAVE INCREASED TO
20% IN SPOTS ON CAM GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES.
TROPICAL REMNANTS CAN ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR, AND BACK SURFACE
WINDS. CONSIDERING THIS ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST BL, BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CORE
CONVECTION.
RAINFALL DOES CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE REMNANT LOW PASSES WITH A
TRAILING BOUNDARY. PLACEMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
HOWEVER A LOT CAM GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THIS SOUTH, PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA (WILKINSON, AMITE, PIKE, WALTHALL). BUT, SHOULD
THIS MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD EXACERBATE FLOOD RISK AND ANY ONGOING
FLOODING AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD PUSH THINGS OVER THE
EDGE. FURTHERMORE, THIS WOULD BE A TRAINING CONVECTION SCENARIO
THAT COULD ADD TO TOTALS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
REINVIGORATES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN, IT IS
UNCERTAIN.
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY WASHES OUT THIS WEEKEND. AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY SLIM,
BUT PWAT, WHILE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WILL BE
MORE SEASONAL (1.5-1.7). THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME "BREAK" FROM THE
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT
INCREASED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK MAY
MEAN THAT RELIEF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ON THE WAY.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION
TOWARDS A NW FLOW REGIME AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SW CONUS.
RIGHT NOW IN THE GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
STALLED BOUNDARY TO BE IN PLACE, WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE
RIDGE. ALL THE WHILE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS COULD SET UP THE AREA FOR ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER,
LIKELY MCS SCENARIO. OF COURSE, MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RA WILL CONTINUE AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITY IS LIKELY AFTER 18/22-23Z, WITH DECREASED RAIN COVERAGE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL LOWERED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WELL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /NF/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 74 87 73 / 100 60 80 70
MERIDIAN 81 73 86 72 / 100 80 80 50
VICKSBURG 86 75 88 74 / 90 60 80 70
HATTIESBURG 83 76 90 75 / 100 70 60 60
NATCHEZ 86 76 91 75 / 90 40 50 60
GREENVILLE 88 74 87 73 / 60 70 80 60
GREENWOOD 85 74 88 73 / 80 80 70 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF/DC
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