983
FXUS64 KJAN 031124 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY OVER THE WHOLE CWA WITH EVEN LESS CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE
595DAM MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS HELP LOWER PWATS DOWN TO
AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 00Z FRI JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF
1.47IN AND THE SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
WAS SHOWING PWATS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES HOVERING AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA TRYING TO
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR NORTHEAST
THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL LEAD TO PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 105F AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. /22/
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
HEADING INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 1020MB SFC HIGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND DANGEROUS HEAT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA
EACH AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY, AND EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH
TO COVER THE REST OF CENTRAL MS, EAST MS AND SOUTH MS. THE
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST TO COVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA
FOR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEAT TRENDS EACH DAY TO SEE
IF FURTHER EXTENSION OF HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(50-75%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW THE SFC HIGH RESTRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID WEEK. HEAT GRAPHICS AND ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK. MUCH OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE DECENT RAIN CHANCES (15-40%) BY NEXT WEEK FRIDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
IFR/LIFR VSBYS WL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z. ISOLATED TSRA WL COME IN VCTY OF GTR-GWO THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE WIND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 75 93 75 / 10 0 30 10
MERIDIAN 96 75 95 75 / 10 0 30 10
VICKSBURG 94 77 94 76 / 10 0 20 10
HATTIESBURG 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 30 20
NATCHEZ 95 76 94 75 / 10 0 30 10
GREENVILLE 95 77 94 76 / 10 0 30 10
GREENWOOD 97 76 96 75 / 20 10 50 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.
LA...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/CR/22
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