267
FXUS64 KJAN 040601 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
GO THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. WHILE THE RECENT HEAT STRESS
IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE NORMAL RANGE, VALUES HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD SOME, AND THIS MAKES THE CURRENT HEAT STRESS EVENT A
LITTLE MORE MARGINAL. GIVEN IT IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A PEAK
IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND GATHERINGS, WE'RE BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MESSAGING, AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE 4TH. THEREAFTER, A
MORE DEFINITE WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
COVERAGE WITH EARLIER ONSET IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE. BECAUSE OF THIS,
PEAK HEAT INDICES AND DURATION BECOME A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE
IN TERMS OF MEETING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
GOING FURTHER OUT. OVERALL, A TYPICAL ACTIVE JULY CONVECTIVE
REGIME IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND GO THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL THIS AFTN WHEN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND MAY COME IN VCTY
OF CNTRL MS TAF SITES. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WL END BY 02Z SUN.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 91 74 91 / 30 70 10 70
MERIDIAN 75 93 74 91 / 10 70 10 70
VICKSBURG 76 92 75 91 / 20 70 10 70
HATTIESBURG 75 93 74 91 / 10 70 20 70
NATCHEZ 75 92 74 91 / 20 80 20 70
GREENVILLE 76 93 75 92 / 30 50 20 60
GREENWOOD 75 94 75 93 / 20 60 20 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/22
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