040
FXUS64 KJAN 050236
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
936 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH MARGINAL (1/5)
SEVERE RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED AREAS, INCREASED HEAT STRESS REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MOTHER NATURE CONTINUES TO PUT ON ITS OWN FIREWORKS SHOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND WEST MS THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS PERSISTING FROM EAST OF VICKSBURG TO AROUND MCCOMB. THOUGH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITHIN LINGERING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WE'RE ALSO MONITORING UPSTREAM STORMS OVER EASTERN OK, WHOSE
REMNANT MCV AND OUTFLOW COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, BUT THE HEAT STRESS
EVENT OVERALL CONTINUES TO BE MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE WITH
MESSAGING PROPPED UP SOME BY THE HOLIDAY RELATED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. WITH THAT SAID, AN INCREASE MCV ACTIVITY WITH GREATER
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE HEAT THREATS A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS WE GO BEYOND TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON EXTENDING THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. AN ACTIVE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE MICROBURSTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT THE MCV ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MAY SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT, AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE GRAPHICS IN THE MESSAGING.
GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A TYPICAL ACTIVE JULY CONVECTIVE REGIME
IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
CEILING/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
MAINLY MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 91 74 91 / 20 60 50 70
MERIDIAN 75 93 74 91 / 40 60 30 70
VICKSBURG 75 91 75 91 / 20 60 40 60
HATTIESBURG 75 92 74 91 / 30 60 20 70
NATCHEZ 75 91 74 91 / 30 60 30 60
GREENVILLE 75 93 74 91 / 20 50 40 50
GREENWOOD 74 93 74 92 / 40 50 50 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC
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