102
FXUS64 KJAN 050634 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
134 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH MARGINAL (1/5)
SEVERE RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED AREAS, INCREASED HEAT STRESS REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO TODAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MOTHER NATURE CONTINUES TO PUT ON ITS OWN FIREWORKS SHOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND WEST MS THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS PERSISTING FROM EAST OF VICKSBURG TO AROUND MCCOMB. THOUGH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITHIN LINGERING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WE'RE ALSO MONITORING UPSTREAM STORMS OVER EASTERN OK, WHOSE
REMNANT MCV AND OUTFLOW COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, BUT THE HEAT STRESS
EVENT OVERALL CONTINUES TO BE MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE WITH
MESSAGING PROPPED UP SOME BY THE HOLIDAY RELATED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. WITH THAT SAID, AN INCREASE MCV ACTIVITY WITH GREATER
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE HEAT THREATS A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS WE GO BEYOND TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON EXTENDING THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. AN ACTIVE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE MICROBURSTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT THE MCV ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MAY SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT, AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE GRAPHICS IN THE MESSAGING.
GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A TYPICAL ACTIVE JULY CONVECTIVE REGIME
IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS AFTN WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSRA WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE TSRA WL DISSIPATE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 20 50
MERIDIAN 74 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
VICKSBURG 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 40
HATTIESBURG 74 91 74 91 / 30 70 20 50
NATCHEZ 74 91 74 91 / 30 60 40 50
GREENVILLE 73 90 73 91 / 30 30 30 20
GREENWOOD 73 91 73 92 / 30 40 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC/22
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