809
FXUS64 KJAN 051749 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM THREAT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH A MARGINAL(1/5)
SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED AREAS, INCREASED HEAT STRESS REMAINS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL, IT WILL BE LESS OPPRESSIVE TODAY DUE TO AN
EARLY START AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING
RADARS SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82 WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION STRETCHING WEST OF THE ARKLATEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PRIME DAYTIME HEATING. THE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV TO DEVELOP AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. LOCAL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWED A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA WITH A PWAT OF TWO INCHES. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION TODAY WILL ALSO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY LEAD TO
MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO HIGH HUMIDITY AGAIN
TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS LIMITING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL APPROACH 105F IN AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND ACROSS OUR SOUTH
SO WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN OUR GRAPHICS. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CONCORDIA LA AND
CATAHOULA LA MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO PEAK IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
DELTA AND SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105
DEGREES. A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL
LIKELY BE INTRODUCED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR MONDAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES (20-
60%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, A FEW STRONG TO
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR BOTH DAYS.
HEAT WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHIC FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT
THREATS ALONG WITH ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ON A DAILY BASIS. MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL SEE
DECENT RAIN CHANCES (15-45%) BY FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, AS SUCH A TEMPO FOR TS
CAN BE FOUND IN SITES EXPECTED TO RECEIVE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW MAY SEE SOME THIN FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN SITES./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 20 50
MERIDIAN 74 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
VICKSBURG 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 40
HATTIESBURG 74 91 74 91 / 30 70 20 50
NATCHEZ 74 91 74 91 / 30 60 40 50
GREENVILLE 73 90 73 91 / 30 30 30 20
GREENWOOD 73 91 73 92 / 30 40 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/OAJ
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