965
FXUS64 KJAN 060545 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK: THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT HAS LESSENED
A BIT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED ITS GRIP OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE TROUGHING IN IT'S PLACE IS SUPPORTING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE LATEST MCV HELPING TO
INITIATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN A HOT, UNSTABLE, AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MCV MOVING IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND
RISK EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION PER
SPC. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE GREATEST IN TERMS OF THE AREA FOR THIS
RISK, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. IN TERMS OF HEAT
DANGER THREATS, WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW LIMITED THRESHOLDS FOR
THE MOST PART.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO INTENSIFY SOME. ADDITIONAL
HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHERN MS TAF SITES
UNTIL AFTER 13Z. AFTER 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WL RESUME AREAWIDE UNTIL
AFTER 17Z WHEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WL BE PSBL UNTIL
AFTER 01Z TUE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTN TSRA AREA EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MS TAF SITES. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 40
MERIDIAN 73 91 73 92 / 20 40 10 20
VICKSBURG 73 91 74 91 / 30 30 10 30
HATTIESBURG 74 91 74 92 / 40 50 10 40
NATCHEZ 73 91 74 92 / 30 60 10 40
GREENVILLE 73 90 73 92 / 20 20 10 20
GREENWOOD 72 91 73 93 / 30 30 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/EC/22
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