471
FXUS64 KJAN 061150 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TODAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY BUT
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WL MAINTAIN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF TWO INCHES STILL
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP GENERATE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DURING PRIME
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
PRIMARILY BUT ALSO SOME HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW, THE
SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD TO MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THE STORMS WILL END THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WAINS. THE LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN ON
SUNDAY BUT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WHICH IS CLOSE
TO NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100FS. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
TROUGHING IN ITS PLACE IS STILL SUPPORTING CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL
HELP SUPPORT DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL START OFF WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) MAINLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-55, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING. A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE HEAT THREAT, AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO PEAK IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. A FEW AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 84 COULD SEE HEAT INDEX READING VALUES REACH 105
DEGREES. REGARDLESS, HEAT TRENDS WILL STAY MAINLY BELOW LIMITED
THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING
AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. EVEN THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN
TERMS OF COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY (20-45%), THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD
LESSEN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO
INTENSIFY SOME HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED
GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
NECESSARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK MONDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL OVER THE EAST AND CNTRL MS TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 13Z. AFTER 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WL RESUME
AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 17Z WHEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WL
BE PSBL UNTIL AFTER 01Z TUE. ISOLATED -SHRA WERE NOTED DEVELOPING
IN THE SE AND MAY COME IN VCTY OF PIB AND HBG BEFORE 17Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTN TSRA AREA EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MS TAF SITES. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 30
MERIDIAN 92 73 92 73 / 30 10 30 20
VICKSBURG 91 73 90 74 / 20 20 40 20
HATTIESBURG 92 74 92 74 / 30 10 40 20
NATCHEZ 92 73 90 74 / 40 20 60 10
GREENVILLE 92 73 90 73 / 30 40 50 20
GREENWOOD 92 72 91 73 / 20 20 50 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page