627
FXUS64 KJAN 070624 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MOST OF THE AREA IS RAIN FREE THIS EVENING, BUT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHES SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING AND CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S./15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK: SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES HAS BEEN
DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKNESS AND PINCHED
OFF OVER THE OZARK REGION WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING A LOWER-END
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THAT EXTENDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO INITIATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A HOT, UNSTABLE, AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER MCV MOVING IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL
DAMAGING WIND RISK EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION PER SPC. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE GREATEST IN TERMS OF THE AREA
FOR THESE RISKS, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. WOULD ALSO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY HEAVY RAIN THREATS AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ANCHOR A CONVECTIVE
BAND OR TWO THAT RESULTS IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS A
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PHENOMENON SO NO FORMAL MESSAGING IS BEING
SENT OUT ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE, IN TERMS OF HEAT DANGER THREATS, WE
SHOULD STAY BELOW LIMITED THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL
FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY
LOWER-END SEVERE THREATS ON A DAILY BASIS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED TSRA AT HKS-JAN-MEI WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL 10Z WHEN A BRIEF
PERIOD 10Z-13Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSRA MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. AWAY
FROM ANY TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 90 73 92 / 20 50 20 20
MERIDIAN 73 91 73 93 / 10 30 10 20
VICKSBURG 73 90 75 92 / 30 40 10 20
HATTIESBURG 74 92 75 94 / 20 50 10 10
NATCHEZ 73 91 74 93 / 20 60 10 10
GREENVILLE 73 91 75 93 / 40 40 20 10
GREENWOOD 72 91 74 94 / 20 40 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/22
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